Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Junket_7-24-12

Today there is no real new news, it chugs along with nary a blip of real import.  Checking the social scene, ssdd, as usual.  Whew blog done, now on to something completely different.

Colorado Shooting (or Col Shooting as most news sources are calling it, does a few bits of type or digital bits really cost that much that they really can’t write out Colorado?)

Anyway it nags on me and I am watching this one for some sense of why this is news.  On the heel of the UN gun control paper, this happens, but it does not seem to make a strong case for gun control in the US.  It does open the debate a bit, and with additional support from many overseas commenters, who keep calling the US a dangerous place where everyone has a gun, there are problems that may come out of this.

The second amendment does not allow US citizens to take the law into their own hands, it helps protect them from a rogue state militia.  This is apparently a point that seems to be misunderstood by gun advocates and adversaries alike.

Moving on, I think that this is a smoke screen, and that there are other things underlying, but that will take some time to flesh out.  In the meantime, other issue though not exactly related do seem to have some relationship to the current issue of weapons.

Searching the MSM has turned up nothing new either.  As usual all the main networks are reporting the same things, although it should be noted that for all intents and purposes, they do all have their angles.  Nothing came out of the Security Sub-committee hearing yesterday on domestic use of drone planes in the US.  I watched the public debate on CSpan, and got that they are still debating it, while they have been deployed at least on the southern border to relatively untrained police forces.  On inside circles I have seen some indications that their use may be even more widespread.  Here in NY there has been very little said or noticed by anyone I know.

Autonomous Robotics
The bots are here, and they are not going to go away anytime soon.  This is a fact of life now.  Soon a few million robots will be unleashed upon the soil and in the air, and we have to accept that.  The reality is one that was long in coming, but the desire was mixed at best.  There is still debate on the security of such on the Hill, but on the ground, there is no question.  Law enforcement will soon be carried out with the aid of land based and air based robotics.  Look for medium positions on the emerging companies that will be building and monitoring the bot nation.  Software and hardware is in place, but as with all of this as soon as it hits the mainstream, there will be a surge of cheap buys of companies that produce, service, and provide materials to the industry.  It is  not yet a bubble, but a blip on the radar, so now is a good time to speculate, but don’t bet the house, just yet.  There are some problems, the networks are unstable, they are susceptible to GPS hacks and other types of localized hacks, and if the NASA watchers are correct, solar activity may take out the Grid for the next ten years, pushing technology back at least a good 5 or so years.
Short of having a good terrestrial based network system of ad-hoc servers and network routers (a new article that will come out on large scale WiFi deployment by cable companies later this week), with some type of alternative to the Smart Grid, as a smarter grid will not save it from itself, there may be a near future of no communications.  At least as we know it.  Without electricity readily available to the commercial markets, that means no refrigeration, no transport (yes I have said in the past everything runs on diesel, but diesel also requires spark), and no way to keep the distribution system working.  The likelihood of this is pretty good, and the experts seem pretty certain that it could be within the next couple of years, maybe even this winter.  A winter hit would have devastating global effects on the main Pan European Nations, including the US and Canada.  Don’t panic yet, such things have been said before to motivate certain key elements to action, or inaction, depending on the faction targeted.  Look for late summer indications of solar activity, if the arborelius seems to be getting a little more showy than usual, and I don’t mean the occasional nighttime light show, but every night light show, you might want to consider short positions on Energy stocks, and long on alternative heating firms.

However there isn’t enough forest left in the world to fuel the heat needs of the northern hemisphere, so if things go bad this winter, hope it is another mild winter, or there may be severe long term effects that would not be pretty on the street.

Certain aspects of this Colorado Shooting still bothers me.  I am waiting to see how this comes out, but I would like to know what is being said about the release of gas and other materials within the theater.  There is a possibility that everyone in that theater that didn’t die may be carrying some new virus, or other issues, not presented yet in the trial.  We don’t know the target of his motivation, and we may never know, and that may indicate as much there.  If there was a release of a virus that has previously unknown to MSM and their minions, it is possible this was a targeted attack.  Too much is still in the air, so to speak.  That seems a bit steep even for a global elite, as there is not much they can do to prevent mutation once it has hit the ground running.  An antidote today is just a waste of time and effort tomorrow when the virus gets a whiff of it and begins to change its mind.  The natural order is hard to debate, they do, everyone does, to some degree, but out right taunting of it means those laws of nature will be applied with prejudice.  Watch the reactions of pharmaceutical stocks in the coming weeks, if they seem to be posting new antibiotics, or vaccines for previously unknown strains of bacteria or viruses, that could mean they knew something they were not disclosing, as if that would surprise anyone.  It may not make them a long buy, but in the short, they may be a good choice.  That is until something gets leaked and they become indicated in part of the attack.

Again though, if there is no power, the companies are powerless to react, as are hospitals, and other EMS services, so that could be a major game changer right there.  This could be volatile and with no clear direction, keep at least some of your capital in solid assets, metals, land and tools (tooling).  Heavy as they are, base metals could surge dramatically if things don’t go well this winter, as when there is no more mass mining of iron and other base metals, soon the actual metals may be worth more than their weight in gold.

Commodities appear to be taking a beating this year, which is fine if you are not trying to fatten up your hogs on grain and corn mash.  One good point, is that since things seem to be bleaker than usual more whiskey (and its ilk) seems to be selling, so beer, wine and liquor stocks might be a good middle position to take, but be ready to jump quickly if things start to go dark.  Commercial stills and are heavy water and electricity users, and without them, they will go down hard, they don’t have a safety net.  The good part is that hogs and cattle can be feed on the waste of the corn squeezings, and brewers grain, although that is still a short term gain, if there is no grain, it means there won’t be any whiskey, beer or waste.  This is bad for the temperaments of the street, no beer, no pork, no barbeque, that won’t sit well with the south or the rest of the world for that matter.  Now have no fear if you live near a nice grass based diversified farming operation, short of total collapse of the world society, they should still be able to provide a good source of local healthy beef pork and poultry, provided you have something worth trading for it.  If they are truly diversified, your waste might just be their feed stock for their energy production.  If it does all go to hell in a handbasket, seek out a local farming community that has the capability to expand its energy production (even from zero), and see if you can’t get in on the ground floor of that local economy, it will be the boon of the next twenty years of recovery.  It could be our saving grace now, but not while we are still blinded by industrial growth hormone driven insanity.

Look on the Sunny Side of Life
I am still optimistic that at least for the time being that the status quo is holding ground, and that with careful placements in a diversified portfolio you could do quite well.  There are some interesting tech industries that are still good buys for a while.  Security is hot still, and only heating up, but watch closely for the correction there, as in some sectors of that industry there will be severe drops, even if the world doesn’t go to hell.  Home security is a good bet if you are buying it for your home, it keeps the honest people honest, although it will not really protect you from dishonest criminals, they don’t care about security systems, which often fail on false positives.  Home automation however is still a long position, it is going to be adopted, but you have to know who is in the game and I don’t have that one yet.  I am looking at Honeywell to try to get in the lead here, but others, smaller more nimble companies may be the way they are going to get ahead, so they may be the better buy in the short term.

National security is still pretty warm, and warming up, with all that is being reported, look to local police for good buys, they are updating their systems to be more technological.  This is a short term gain, but what isn’t really.  In general the best buys are in the areas of new tech, robotics, GPS apps, mobile tech, and wireless.  Look for companies that look like they would be good buys in the near future for the long term companies like ADT and their ilk.  Time Warner and a few other network providers are looking like they are trying to position themselves as providers of this tech on the same pay as you go method, but I have my doubts on how successful that will be.  Still for now that does mean they will be out there spending money trying to buy up smaller companies that provide better service, so they too can do their part in killing any real chance that small business will actually help the economy.  With the TSA essentially going rogue lately and refusing to even report to DHS, or Congress, it could be an interesting season on the Hill to say the least.  They currently have an open budget and little oversight, so now is their time to try to make the best of it.  I think this will not fare well for them in the long term, and if FEMA has to act on their behalf, it could be a good tabloid season as well.  Look for action on the Southern border, they seem to be absent here in the north, where they would have a much more difficult time, as it is not as hot a climate for their actions.

Last Words
I am getting my tweet on, or trying to.  I am trying to see if I can begin to use Twitter a little more as a source of news on the ground.  I am hoping that it will be the type of boots on the ground type of reporting of actual conditions in areas I myself cannot get access to.  The social networks, such as FaceBook, seem to be less useful for such things.  If anyone knows of additional sources that may be useful, I am not above checking them out.  For now I am on G+, FB, and Twitter mostly, with some jaunts into Linkedin, and a few other more specialized networks.  I could use a few more sources, as I like to have ways to check the stories before I set them out there.  I am using a blog reader, Google Reader, as well as others.  I catch as many podcast (and other cast) as I can, but I am only one man.  I don’t have a staff, and I don’t expect I ever will, it doesn’t suit me.  I do get into discussions with people on things, but for the most part I sit here surfing the dark fiber for bits and pieces of information that will help me put the puzzle together a little better.

Again I have no budget, no discretionary income to waste on such things, and shouldn’t need it.  I have expenses, but they are covered mostly by people who care about things I do, and with a little more time even some of the other issues that are present in my current situations will pan out, provided you all keep reading and provide some rationale for me to even bother doing this in the first place.  I mean I have my own reasons, but I will be honest with you, impressions on my blog can help pay for certain expenses I would otherwise have to beg for, so keep the impressions going, and if you really feel generous buy some of the stuff that is advertised there.  I don’t run with a lot of advertising, just some from Google, and a selection from Amazon, to see if it is all worth it.  I also will plug my books, which will be available on Amazon and eventually on Google (once they get a model for self publishers).  I currently do not have anything to plug, but I will have some this year, as I am finishing up some work on some of them as we speak, so to speak.  I will add them to these post when they hit Amazon as I have in the past.  If you like them, buy them, and that will make all of us happy, including Amazon, and we want to make them happy, because when they are happy, we all are happy, get it.  Well that’s the rant for the day.

New Catch Phrase: Sleep Well, if you can...  tell me what you think, too dramatic, too dark, ah good, I like it that way.

Translate